Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors odds, picks and predictions

The Denver Nuggets (32-25) stop by Chase Center Wednesday to play the Golden State Warriors (42-16) at 10 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Nuggets vs. Warriors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Denver has won four out of its last five games (4-1 against the spread (ATS)) including two straight games at the Toronto Raptors (110-109 Saturday) and versus the Orlando Magic (121-111 Monday).

Golden State has dropped three of its last four games (0-4 ATS), which includes a 119-104 blowout loss to the Clippers in Los Angeles as a 6.5-point favorite Monday.

The Nuggets upset the Warriors 89-86 in Golden State Dec. 28 as 8-point underdogs.

Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NBA February 16 breakdown

Nuggets at Warriors odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:50 p.m. ET.

Money line: Nuggets +175 (bet $100 to win $175) | Warriors -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
Against the spread: Nuggets +5.5 (-115) | Warriors -5.5 (-107)
Over/Under: 225.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Nuggets at Warriors key injuries

Nuggets

PG Monte Morris (concussion) questionable
SG Jamal Murray (knee) out

Warriors

PF Draymond Green (back) out
SF Andre Iguodala (back) out

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Nuggets at Warriors odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 112, Nuggets 109

Money line

PASS.

My favorite wager in this game is Denver’s first-half spread because Golden State typically gets out to slow starts and then turns it on in the second half. However, the Nuggets first-half money line isn’t fat enough to sprinkle on.

Against the spread

GIMME the NUGGETS +3.5 (-130) ALTERNATE FIRST-HALF SPREAD.

Denver has the fifth-best ATS return on investment (ROI) in the first half at 32-24-1 ATS while Golden State has the third-worst ATS ROI in the first half at 24-34 ATS, according to EVAnalytics.com.

The Nuggets are 3-0 ATS in the first half with a plus-7.0 scoring margin over the last three games while the Warriors are 0-3 ATS in the first half along that span.

However, in the second half, Golden State balls and Denver struggles. The Warriors have an NBA-best plus-5.4 second-half scoring margin and the Nuggets have a minus-1.6 second-half scoring margin (ranked 23rd).

There is also some value in the Nuggets +5.5 (-115) for the full game. Denver is 4-0 ATS in the last four games versus teams with a winning record and 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven road games.

For the record, the NUGGETS +3.5 (-130) ALTERNATE FIRST-HALF SPREAD is my best bet in this game.

Over/Under

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 225.5 (-108) for a tiny wager, if at all, because Denver’s first-half spread is my favorite bet in this game and I don’t have a strong handicap for the Under.

However, the Under has cashed in five consecutive Nuggets-Warriors meetings, Denver is 0-4 O/U in the last four games versus teams with a winning record and Golden State is ranked 19th in adjusted offensive rating over the past two weeks, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.

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Author: Naomi Berry