Denver Nuggets at Milwaukee Bucks odds, picks and predictions

The Denver Nuggets (27-21) visit the Milwaukee Bucks (31-20) Sunday for a 7 p.m. ET tip-off at Fiserv Forum. Below, we look at the Nuggets vs. Bucks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Denver handled business at New Orleans 116-105 Friday as a 4-point road favorite. Since Jan. 16, the Nuggets are 5-2 straight up (SU) but just 1-5-1 against the spread (ATS).

Milwaukee has won four of its past five games with its most recent being a 123-108 victory over the New York Knicks as a 9-point home favorite Friday.

The Bucks are 4-2 SU and 2-4 ATS with the second-worst ATS margin (minus-5.2), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), since Jan. 17.

The Bucks (-6.5) trampled the Nuggets 120-109 in their first meeting this season in Denver Nov. 26.

Nuggets at Bucks odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:35 p.m. ET.

Money line: Nuggets +210 (bet $100 to win $210) | Bucks -270 (bet $270 to win $100)
Against the spread: Nuggets +6.5 (-112) | Bucks -6.5 (-108)
Over/Under (O/U): 232.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Nuggets at Bucks key injuries

Nuggets

SF Will Barton (illness) probable
C DeMarcus Cousins (foot) questionable
PF Aaron Gordon (illness) questionable
PG Jamal Murray (knee) out

Bucks

PG George Hill (neck) doubtful

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Nuggets at Bucks odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Bucks 114, Nuggets 110

Money line

PASS.

I don’t like Nuggets (+210) enough to sprinkle anything on their money line even though it’s a fairly juicy payout. The Nuggets are just 6-8 SU as road underdogs and the Bucks are 16-6 SU as home favorites.

Against the spread

BET NUGGETS +6.5 (-112) for 1 unit.

This isn’t a good spot for either team, but Denver has been much better and more consistent this month. The Nuggets are 10-5 SU in January with the best effective field-goal shooting, best rebounding rate and fifth-best assist-to-turnover ratio.

The Bucks are 7-7 SU this month with the 13th-best net rating and the 25th-ranked ATS margin (minus-3.4).

Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six visits to Milwaukee, while the Bucks are just 5-9 ATS at home versus teams with a winning record.

BET NUGGETS +6.5 (-112).

Over/Under

BET UNDER 232.5 (-108) for a half-unit, mostly as a fade against a market that has bet the Over so heavily the total has increased from the 227.5-point opener (according to Pregame.com).

Two of the three referees assigned to this game have officiated more Overs than Unders, and the officiating crew is a combined 42-53 O/U. This plus both teams having a top-10 defensive FT/FGA rate should equal fewer trips to the foul line.

I see Denver slowing the pace down behind its elite defensive rebounding. Plus, Milwaukee doesn’t force a lot of turnovers – the Bucks rank 20th in defensive turnover rate.

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Author: Naomi Berry