Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers odds, picks and predictions

The Cleveland Cavaliers (32-21) host the Indiana Pacers (19-35) Sunday at the Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. The tip-off is scheduled for 6 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Pacers vs. Cavaliers odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Indiana has lost three of its past four, including back-to-back home games versus the Orlando Magic (119-118 Wednesday) and Chicago Bulls (122-115 Friday). Over the past two weeks, the Pacers are 2-5 straight up (SU) and 2-4-1 against the spread (ATS).

Cleveland has alternated between winning and losing over the past five games with the most recent being a 102-101 victory versus the Hornets in Charlotte. The Cavs are 4-2 SU but just 2-4 ATS in the last 14 days.

The Cavs defeated the Pacers 108-104 in Cleveland, Jan. 2, and pushed as 4-point home favorites with the Over cashing on a 207.5-point total.

Pacers at Cavaliers odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12 p.m. ET.

Money line: Pacers +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Cavaliers -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
Against the spread: Pacers +5.5 (-112) | Cavaliers -5.5 (-108)
Over/Under (O/U): 216.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Pacers at Cavaliers key injuries

Pacers

PG Malcolm Brogdon (Achilles’) questionable
PG Domantas Sabonis (health and safety protocols) questionable
C Myles Turner (foot) out
C Goga Bitadze (foot) questionable

Cavaliers

PG Darius Garland (back) questionable
PF Lauri Markkanen (ankle) out

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Pacers at Cavaliers odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Cavaliers 108, Pacers 101

Money line

PASS.

I only “lean” to Cleveland laying points and cannot justify betting the Cavaliers (-230) given the uncertainty surrounding both teams’ injury reports.

Against the spread

“LEAN” to the CAVALIERS -5.5 (-108) because the Pacers +5.5 (-112) struggle against quality defenses, and Cleveland is third in defensive rating.

For instance, Indiana has a minus-7.7 adjusted net rating versus top-10 defenses (ranked 23rd) and a minus-4.1 ATS margin (ranked 23rd), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Furthermore, the Cavs are 15-9-1 ATS at home with an NBA-best plus-5.1 ATS margin while the Pacers are 11-13-2 ATS on the road and 3-7 ATS versus Central Division co-tenants.

Lastly, both teams attempt a lot of shots at the rim and attack the paint. But, Cleveland has a better offensive and defensive field goal percentage at the rim (per CTG), and Indiana is 26th in paint points per game allowed.

It’s only a “LEAN” to the CAVALIERS -5.5 (-108) because Cleveland is 0-6 ATS in the last six games as a favorite.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the UNDER 216.5 (-112) for several reasons.

First of all, the Cavs are 7-17-1 O/U at home with a minus-4.1 total margin and the Pacers are 6-12 O/U as a road underdog with a minus-3.8 total margin.

Second, roughly two-thirds of the public is betting the Over (according to Pregame.com), and my instinct is to fade a one-sided betting market.

Also, each team could be without significant offensive pieces, and even if said players return, it might take them a few quarters or games to knock off rust.

That said, Indiana hasn’t been able to defend anyone recently, which is the major reason the Pacers are 6-0-1 O/U in their last seven games.

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Author: Naomi Berry