In a catch weight fight in the main event, Islam Makhachev and Bobby Green meet Saturday at UFC Vegas 49 – also known as UFC Fight Night 202 – at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. Below, we analyze the UFC Vegas 49: Makhachev vs. Green odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the prelims starting at 4 p.m. ET and the main card at 7 p.m.
Makhachev, the protege of Khabib Nurmagomedov, was expected to fight Beneil Dariush. However, the latter pulled out, so Green steps in on short notice, and this fight takes place at 160 pounds, or catch weight, rather than lightweight.
The Russian southpaw heads to Vegas with three consecutive submission victories, including a Round 1 win at UFC 267 at Dan Hooker last time out. Five of his last seven fights have finished inside the distance, with four submission wins and a KO/TKO of Gleison Tibau at UFC 220 in Jan. 2018. He has nine straight wins since a loss at UFC 192 in 2015.
Green, a.k.a. “King”, has posted two straight wins, including a unanimous-decision win over Nasrat Haqparast at UFC 271 last time out just two weeks ago. He is 5-4 across his last nine fights, with nine of his last 10 bouts going the distance.
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UFC Vegas 49 Makhachev vs. Green: Odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:06 a.m. ET.
Fight result (2-way line): Makhachev -1000 (bet $1,000 to win $100) | Green +550 (bet $100 to win $550)
Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +230 | No -350)
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UFC Vegas 49 Makhachev vs. Green: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Makhachev (21-1-0) | Green (29-12-1)
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
It’s uncertain how much energy Green is going to have after just going the distance in a fight two weeks ago at UFC 271. Whatever he does here will be tremendous, but he isn’t likely to push Makhachev very far. Still, laying 10 times your potential return isn’t a good betting strategy.
Instead of playing a fighter on the 2-way line, look to MAKHACHEV BY SUBMISSION (-127) as a much better value, as Green’s legs are likely to be a bit wobbly after just going the distance with Haqparast two weeks ago.
In addition, it’s a good idea to play a two-round block, with MAKHACHEV IN ROUND 2 (+370) and MAKHACHEV IN ROUND 3 (+600). Yes, you’ll lose one of the ends, but you’ll still be well ahead if the heavy favorite wins in Rounds 2-3.
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