The Cincinnati Bengals meet the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium in L.A. for Super Bowl 56 Sunday. One of Cincy’s key players is third-year RB Joe Mixon who finished the season third in rushing yards (1,205) and fourth in rushing touchdowns (13).
Mixon having a strong game would bring much-needed balance to the Bengals’ offense. In fact, Cincy is 6-0 in Mixon’s six best rushing performances during the regular season and playoffs combined. Below, we look at Joe Mixon’s Super Bowl prop bets with NFL picks and predictions.
Joe Mixon 2022 Super Bowl prop bets
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 7:10 a.m. ET.
Rushing Yards: UNDER 60.5 (-114)
First of all, I’m looking at the Under for both of Mixon’s rushing props since I have the Rams beating the Bengals convincingly in the Super Bowl. If L.A. gets out to an early lead or is in control of the game in the second half then Cincy should abandon the run game.
L.A’s rush defense is very underrated; the Rams are fourth in yards per rush allowed (3.9), fifth in rush defense DVOA (according to Football Outsiders) and third in rush defense expected points added per play.
L.A. has also allowed 61 or fewer rushing yards to its opponent in all three playoff games and Mixon has rushed for 58 or fewer yards in six of his last eight games.
My strategy with Mixon’s rushing props is to BET a three-fourths unit on UNDER 60.5 Rushing Yards (-114) and save the other quarter-unit for the Under on rushing attempts.
Rushing Attempts: UNDER 16.5 (-123)
The same point about game-script applies to this prop as well but I’m more confident in Under Mixon rushing yards because I wouldn’t be surprised if Cincy tries to establish the run early on.
However, I see the Rams and QB Matthew Stafford starting out hot, and apparently, the market agrees since the Under for Mixon Rushing Attempts is heavily juiced.
Mixon appeared in six of Cincy’s seven losses and had 14 or fewer rushing attempts in three of those games. Plus, the Bengals are 19th in rushing rate despite being 10th in time of possession.
BET a quarter-unit on UNDER 16.5 Rushing Attempts (-123).
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Anytime TD scorer: Mixon (+110)
If Tipico offered a “No for Joe Mixon to score a touchdown” then I’d be interested in that, but they don’t. However, Mixon does have a nose for the end zone and it would be a bummer to lose on a short-yardage, goal-to-go scamper.
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