Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs odds, picks and predictions

The Miami Heat (32-20) travel to AT&T Center Thursday to take on the San Antonio Spurs (19-33). Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Spurs odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

The Heat come into this game on a three-game losing skid that follows a three-game win streak. Miami has failed to cover four straight games and is just 4-6 against the spread (ATS) over its last 10 outings.

The Heat hold opponents to the second-fewest number of points from 3-pointers; however, for the Spurs, that won’t matter much as they rank 27th in points generated from 3-pointers.

San Antonio is riding a 2-game losing skid, is 4-6 straight up and 5-5 ATS over its last 10 games. Bettors should wait til closer to tip-off to wager on this game as both teams have potential injury concerns.

Heat at Spurs odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:35 p.m. ET.

Money line: Heat -260 (bet $260 to win $100) | Spurs +205 (bet $100 to win $205)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat -6.5 (-107) | Spurs +6.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 221.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Heat at Spurs key injuries

Heat

F Jimmy Butler (toe) questionable
G Kyle Lowry (personal) questionable
F P.J. Tucker (knee) questionable
G Caleb Martin (Achilles) out

Spurs

C Jakob Poeltl (concussion) out
G Dejounte Murray (wrist) questionable

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Heat at Spurs odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 113, Spurs 111

Money line

PASS on the money line. The Heat are far too banged up to bet on their -260 tag.

Miami hasn’t shown enough to garner that expensive of a price tag and has a .500 road record, and you can expect it to become even more expensive if Murray is ruled out.

Against the spread

BET on the SPURS +6.5 (-115).

This handicap is assuming the Spurs do get their leading scorer, Murray, to play. Murray is second in the NBA in triple-doubles, so his impact on every aspect of the game is there.

The Heat rank ninth in points off turnovers and have the seventh-best offensive and defensive rating.

The Spurs average the fourth-fewest turnovers per game. The Heat allow the fewest shot attempts per game while the Spurs’ low turnover numbers help influence their league-leading 93.4 attempts per game.

I trust the well-coached Spurs offense to play their style and force the Heat to defend without the ability to force turnovers. Miami may struggle to get extra points and cover the spread without those extra attempts.

The Heat are 6-8 ATS as road favorites. I like the Spurs to cover with that in mind, especially if Murray suits up and either Lowry or Butler don’t play.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the OVER 221.5 (-108).

The Spurs Over has hit in four of their last six games and they’re 26-24-2 O/U on the season. The Heat are a league-leading 33-19 O/U and have hit the Over in eight straight games. However, just two of those eight games would have surpassed this current total.

The Spurs are fifth in pace, and this should be a high-energy game, so the Over looks like the better play here given the trends.

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Author: Naomi Berry