Miami Heat at Washington Wizards odds, picks and predictions

The Miami Heat (34-20) head to the nation’s capital Monday for a 7 p.m. ET showdown with the Washington Wizards (24-28) at Capital One Arena. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Wizards odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Miami has won and covered back-to-back road games over the San Antonio Spurs (112-95 Thursday) and the Charlotte Hornets (104-86 Saturday) following a three-game losing skid. The Heat are 4-3 straight up (SU) and 3-4 against the spread (ATS) over the last two weeks.

Washington has dropped seven of its last eight games (1-7 ATS) including its latest outing, 95-80, versus the Phoenix Suns at home as an 8-point underdog Saturday.

The Heat are 2-1 SU but just 1-2 ATS versus the Wizards this season.

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Heat at Wizards odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:52 a.m. ET.

Money line: Heat -270 (bet $270 to win $100) | Wizards +210 (bet $100 to win $210)
Against the spread: Heat -6.5 (-107) | Wizards +6.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 207.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Heat at Wizards key injuries

Heat

SF Jimmy Butler (toe) questionable
SG Tyler Herro (knee) questionable
SF Caleb Martin (Achilles) questionable
SF Max Strus (quadriceps) questionable

Wizards

SG Bradley Beal (wrist) out
C Daniel Gafford (health and safety protocols) out

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Heat at Wizards odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 111, Wizards 103

Money line

PASS.

Miami is obviously the right side but the Heat (-270) are a little out of my price range for an NBA regular-season money line favorite. Especially considering Miami could be without its leading scorer and the odds-on favorite currently to win the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year award.

Against the spread

“LEAN” to the HEAT -6.5 (-107) because the Over is actually my favorite bet in this contest.

However, Miami has covered six of its last eight games versus teams with a losing record and won two of its three meetings with Washington by at least 7 points.

Plus the Heat have a decisive edge in rebounding and more rebounds mean more possessions, which usually leads to more points. Miami has a plus-3.0 rebound-per-game differential whereas Washington’s is minus-0.9.

Instead of betting Miami’s full-game spread, I’d prefer to take a shot at the HEAT -2.5 FIRST-HALF SPREAD (-122).

Miami has a plus-5.7 first-half scoring margin and Washington has a minus-11.7 first-half scoring margin over their last three games.

Over/Under

BET the OVER 207.5 (-115) as a fade against the heavy line movement with the total.

The Heat-Wizards game opened with a 214-point total and has been steamed down to the current price presumably because of Miami’s injury report.

However, I’d consider this an overreaction since Butler’s absence hurts both the Heat’s offense and defense and Miami is 12-7 O/U in games Butler misses.

The absence of Gafford also means Washington will play PF Montrezl Harrell more who’s instant offense from the bench.

Miami is ninth in adjusted offensive free-throw rate (FTr) and Washington is seventh, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). The Heat are 26th in adjusted defensive FTr and the Wizards are 21st, per CTG.

All three referees assigned to this game have also officiated more Overs and the officiating crew has a combined 57-48 O/U record.

The OVER 207.5 (-115) is my favorite wager in this game.

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Author: Naomi Berry