The North Carolina Tar Heels (22-8, 14-5 ACC) visit Cameron Indoor Stadium to take on the No. 2 Duke Blue Devils (26-4, 16-3) in Coach K’s final home game. Tip is scheduled for 6 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we look at the North Carolina vs. Duke odds and lines, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
The Blue Devils will have a little extra motivation to come out on top in this one. Not only is it a rivalry game, but Duke will take the court as head coach Mike Krzyzewski leads the charge for his final time at Cameron Indoor – he is retiring after the season.
The Blue Devils destroyed North Carolina 87-67 in Chapel Hill earlier this season. Duke is 17-11-2 against the spread (ATS) this season but just 11-8 ATS against conference opponents.
That’s one area in which North Carolina is better as it is 11-7-1 ATS against ACC teams. However, the Tar Heels are 14-15-1 ATS overall but 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 outings. They average 78.1 points per game.
North Carolina is led by F Armando Bacot, who averages 16.4 points and 12.7 rebounds per game.
Rankings courtesy of the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
North Carolina at Duke odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:49 a.m. ET.
Money line: North Carolina +550 (bet $100 to win $550) | Duke -850 (bet $850 to win $100)
Against the spread: North Carolina +11.5 (-105) | Duke -11.5 (-120)
Over/Under (O/U): 153.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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North Carolina at Duke odds, lines, picks and predictions
Duke 81, North Carolina 75
Duke (-850) is far too expensive, but I do expect the Blue Devils to come out on top.
Against the spread
LEAN on NORTH CAROLINA +11.5 (-105).
Duke has far more to lose in this game, and with North Carolina playing with house money, it should be the Tar Heels who come in more relaxed.
Also, the narratives fit this at least being a close battle as it just seems like a quintessential way to end Coach K’s career against UNC is in a close, hard-fought battle.
UNC didn’t get going at home in the season’s first battle with Duke. Bacot was just 4-for-10 from the field and G Caleb Love was even worse, hitting just 3-for-10. Those two should be better this second time around. Also, expect UNC to shoot better than 40.7% from the field, which it did in the first contest.
Duke is just 4-5 when spotted 10 or more in the calendar year, mainly home games against lower-tier conference opponents. UNC is good enough to keep this game close, and Duke hasn’t covered huge spreads at Cameron.
BET OVER 153.5 (-107).
One thing both teams have been able to do this season is cash Over tickets.
The Tar Heels are 18-11-1 O/U, while Duke is 15-14-1 O/U. Over the last 10 games, North Carolina is 8-2 O/U and Duke is 7-3 O/U, so they’re picking up the pace like it’s March.
North Carolina also played with pace, ranking 72nd in possessions per game.
Duke ranks fifth in the nation in offensive efficiency. The Blue Devils’ efficiency mixed with the Tar Heels’ pace should be able to produce enough points to hit the Over.
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