The Philadelphia 76ers (39-23) head to South Beach Saturday to play the Miami Heat (42-22) at FTX Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the 76ers vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Philly is on a four-game win streak (3-1 against the spread (ATS)) following the All-Star Game and since acquiring SG James Harden from the Brooklyn Nets. The Sixers rallied back from an early double-digit deficit Friday to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers 125-119.
Miami is 4-1 straight up (SU) and ATS since the All-Star break, most recently upsetting the Nets 113-107 Thursday in F Kevin Durant‘s return to action.
These teams are split are tied 1-1 SU and ATS in their head-to-head series this season with the road team winning and covering each. Both 76ers-Heat meetings have gone Under the total.
76ers at Heat odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:15 p.m. ET.
Money line (ML): 76ers +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Heat -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
Against the spread: 76ers +4.5 (-112) | Heat -4.5 (-108)
Over/Under (O/U): 213.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
76ers at Heat key injuries
SG James Harden (hamstring) out
SF Jimmy Butler (toe) questionable
PG Kyle Lowry (personal reasons) out
SF Caleb Martin (Achilles) questionable
SF Max Strus (shoulder) questionable
PF P.J. Tucker (knee) questionable
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76ers at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions
Heat 110, Sixers 102
PASS because once the news broke of Harden’s absence, Miami’s ML price became too rich for my blood.
Miami should win this game outright but the -180 tag on the Heat is just too much considering the Sixers still have the MVP favorite in C Joel Embiid in the projected starting 5.
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Against the spread
“LEAN” to the HEAT -4.5 (-108) because there are still a lot of key contributors listed as “questionable” on Miami’s injury report. That said, this is a profitable spot for the Heat for various reasons.
Miami performs better against tough competition than Philly. The Heat are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games versus teams with a 60.0% or higher winning rate.
While the Sixers have a minus-6.0 adjusted net rating (ranked 18th) and minus-5.6 ATS margin (ranked 27th) versus teams in the top-10 of net efficiency, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.
Furthermore, the Heat take care of business when playing fatigued teams. Miami is 11-3 SU (plus-11.0 margin of victory) and 10-4 ATS (plus-7.1 ATS margin) with a rest advantage.
The HEAT -4.5 (-108) is my favorite wager in this game.
“LEAN” to the UNDER 213.5 (-112) for a tiny wager, if at all. Most of the market will probably be on the Under since Harden will miss Saturday’s game and I hate following the herd in sports betting.
However, both teams are top-six in offensive FT/FGA rate but they might not have as much success getting to the charity stripe with these referees. The officiated crew assigned to this game has a combined 50-72 O/U record this season.
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