The first-and second-best teams by net rating meet Wednesday when the Phoenix Suns (37-9) visit the Utah Jazz (30-18) for the second of their home-and-away back-to-back. The tip-off at Vivint Smart Home Arena is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Suns vs. Jazz odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Phoenix beat a depleted Utah team, 115-109, Monday in the first of this back-to-back, but the Suns failed to cover as 12-point home favorites. The Jazz were without all five starters Monday.
The Suns have won seven straight games and have covered the spread in four of those contests. The Jazz have lost eight of their last 10 games and are 2-7-1 against the spread (ATS) over that span.
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Suns at Jazz odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:45 p.m. ET.
Money line: Suns -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Jazz +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
Against the spread (ATS): Suns -1.5 (-115) | Jazz +1.5 (-107)
Over/Under (O/U): 223.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Suns at Jazz key injuries
C Deandre Ayton (ankle) out
C JaVale McGee (knee) out
PF Jae Crowder (wrist) out
PG Cameron Payne (wrist) out
C Rudy Gobert (calf) out
SG Donovan Mitchell (concussion) out
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Suns at Jazz odds, lines, picks and predictions
Suns 115, Jazz 109
BET the SUNS (-130) for 1 unit even though there has been a sharp line move toward the Jazz (+105) since Phoenix was a -180 money line (ML) favorite on the look-ahead line, according to Pregame.com.
I’d anticipate this line movement is due to Phoenix being without its starting and backup bigs and Utah PG Mike Conley being active for this game whereas he missed Monday’s Suns-Jazz meeting.
However, Suns floor general Chris Paul said a couple of things in his on-court postgame interview following Monday’s Suns-Jazz game, which gives me confidence in Phoenix despite the scary reverse line movement.
CP3 pointed out that he needed to be more aggressive versus Utah because the Jazz are playing drop coverage without Gobert on the floor when Phoenix runs it’s pick-and-roll (PnR) action.
Also, CP3 mentioned how impressed he was with recent signee big Bismack Biyombo‘s hustle and screen-setting skills. Biyombo has given the Suns good minutes and has a plus-12.4 adjusted on/off net rating, which grades in the 94th percentile for bigs, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Lastly, I’d expect the Suns to pick up the pace since they play awesome fast-break basketball and are missing a couple of bigs.
For instance, Phoenix plays the 10th-highest frequency of transition offense and has the third-best fast-break offensive efficiency. This is an area of weakness for the Jazz, who have the third-worst defensive efficiency in transition.
BET the SUNS (-130).
Against the spread
PASS since Phoenix’s ML is only 15 cents on the dollar more expensive than the Suns -1.5 (-115). For what’s it worth, I’d bet Phoenix’s spread up to -3.5 and the Suns 12-6 ATS as a road underdog and the Jazz are 8-16 ATS at home.
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 223.5 (-107) for a small wager, if at all, because of Phoenix’s aforementioned offensive edges over Utah.
I gave out the Over in Monday’s Suns-Jazz game, but that only cashed because Utah’s backups were 45.2% from behind the arc, and I don’t know how sustainable that is.
Plus a majority of the market is taking the Over in this spot as well, and I hate following a crowd in sports betting.
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