Utah Jazz at Phoenix Suns odds, picks and predictions

Two of the top Western Conference teams meet Sunday when the Phoenix Suns (49-11) host the Utah Jazz (37-22). Tip-off at Footprint Center is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Jazz vs. Suns odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Utah beat the Dallas Mavericks 114-109 at home Friday in its first game back from the All-Star break but failed to cover as a 5.5-point home favorite. The Jazz are 15-12 straight up (SU) and 13-13-1 against the spread (ATS) on the road.

Phoenix is 1-1 SU and ATS following the All-Star game after clobbering the  Thunder 124-104 Thursday in Oklahoma City then losing at home to the New Orleans Pelicans 117-102 Friday. The Suns are 26-6 SU at home but just 15-17 ATS.

The Suns are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS versus the Jazz since the beginning of last season, which includes two victories this season (1-1 ATS).

Jazz at Suns odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:45 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Jazz -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Suns -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
Against the spread: Jazz +1.5 (-120) | Suns -1.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 226.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Jazz at Suns key injuries

Jazz

Suns

PG Chris Paul (hand) out

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Jazz at Suns odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Jazz 119, Suns 108

Money line

BET the JAZZ (-105) for 1.5 units because these teams are pretty even when both are at full-strength but the absence of CP3 looms large for the Suns.

Both teams run a ton of pick-and-roll (PnR) action but Utah has the best offensive efficiency in PnR through ball handlers and both Phoenix’s offensive and defensive efficiency in the PnR suffers without CP3.

The Suns score 12.2 more half-court points per 100 plays when CP3 is on the floor, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). Whereas the Jazz are first in half-court points per 100 plays, per CTG.

Utah also has the edge in several pivotal positional matchups over Phoenix. Jazz SG Donovan Mitchell is outscoring Suns Devin Booker 25.5-24.9 points per game (PPG) in their 11 career head-to-head meetings and outshooting him 46.2-43.4% from the field (47.0-35.1% on 3-pointers).

On top of that, Phoenix big Deandre Ayton is going to have a tough time getting quality looks against three-time Defensive Player of the Year in Utah big Rudy Gobert.

Gobert is outscoring Ayton 16.6-11.4 PPG, outshooting him 75.5-51.3% and outrebounding Ayton 13.1-8.6 in their seven career meetings.

The bottom line is I’m looking to fade the Suns without CP3 and getting the JAZZ (-105) at this price is a no-brainer.

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Against the spread

PASS.

The Jazz +1.5 (-120) isn’t worth the insurance for our Utah ML wager. However, if the line goes to +2.5 or higher then I’d sprinkle on Utah’s ML while hammering the Jazz plus the points.

Over/Under

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 226.5 (-110) for a tiny wager — if at all —  because I much prefer the Utah sides more than the total.

However, these teams have the top-two non-garbage time offensive ratings (per CTG), Utah is 4-2 O/U as a road underdog, Phoenix is 18-14 O/U as a home favorite and these teams have a combined 5-1 O/U in day games.

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Author: Naomi Berry