Alabama at Kentucky odds, picks and prediction

The Alabama Crimson Tide (17-9, 7-6 SEC) visit Rupp Arena Saturday to take on the No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats (21-5, 10-3). Tip-off is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Alabama vs. Kentucky odds and lines, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.

The last time these two teams met, Kentucky covered as a 1-point underdog on the road Feb 5. The Wildcats scored just 66 points, winning by 11 in a game that had an O/U of 156.

Kentucky’s offense struggled heavily as C Oscar Tshiebwe went just 4-for-13. The Wildcats are 9-16-1 against the spread (ATS) and a perfect 15-0 straight up as home.

Alabama on the road is just 2-5 straight up and 2-4-1 ATS. The Crimson Tide have covered just 1 of their last 5 games and are 2-7-1 ATS over their last 10.

Rankings courtesy of the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.

Alabama at Kentucky odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:12 a.m. ET.

Money line: Alabama +230 (bet $100 to win $230) | Kentucky -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
Against the spread: Alabama +6.5 (-108) | Kentucky -6.5 (-112)
Over/Under (O/U): 154.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Alabama at Kentucky odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Kentucky 84, Alabama 74

Money line

PASS.

Alabama received the most votes of any non-Top 25 team in the most recent rankings. It is a side that has many guards that can light up the stat sheet. Betting against the Crimson Tide at the Wildcats’ -300 price isn’t smart.

Likewise, betting on the Tide, which is 2-5 on the road, against Kentucky, which is undefeated at home doesn’t make much sense either.

PASS and look to the points for value.

Against the spread

BET KENTUCKY -6.5 (-112).

Simply put, the Crimson Tide haven’t been good against good teams. They’re just 2-6 ATS against ranked opponents. Combine that with being just 2-5 straight up on the road, and I’ll take the Wildcats.

Another key reason is that the Crimson Tide are one dimension compared to Kentucky.

Alabama is great at offense, averaging 80.4 points per game (PPG) to rank 17th in the country, but it ranks 324th in opponents’ PPG (75.5). Kentucky rank 11th (80.6 PPG) and 57th (64.7 PPG), respectively.

Kentucky can defend whereas Alabama can’t. That should determine this ball game.

Over/Under

LEAN to the OVER 154.5 (-115).

The first time these two teams met, Alabama shot 3-for-30 from 3-point land. That’s not going to happen in round 2. Kentucky also shot poorly (40% overall) in that meeting.

If both teams get back to the mean, the Over should cash. Alabama is 17-9 O/U this season, including 5-3 O/U against ranked opponents.

Given Kentucky’s main scorer is Tshiebwe and the Crimson Tide have a 7-footer that can counter his size (C Charles Bediako), this is only a lean.

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Author: Naomi Berry