Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

The Arizona Diamondbacks (32-36) open a 3-game road series against the San Diago Padres (41-27) Monday. First pitch is 9:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Padres lead the season series 3-1. This is the first matchup since their 4-game series to open the season.

The Diamondbacks went 3-3 in their recent homestand, winning 3 of the final 4 games and taking 2 of 3 contests from the Minnesota Twins over the weekend. They won 7-1 Sunday to capture the series.

The Padres start a 7-game homestand as they return after being swept in a 3-game series at the Colorado Rockies. They had won 4 in a row and 11 of 14 games before dropping the 3 games.

Diamondbacks at Padres projected starters

RHP Zach Davies vs. RHP Yu Darvish

Davies (2-3, 3.78 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 69 IP.

Allowed 2 runs on 4 hits and 3 walks in 5 innings in his first start of the year against the Padres April 9; received a no-decision in a 5-2 loss.
Threw 7 scoreless innings in his last start vs. the Cincinnati Reds Tuesday and has not allowed a run in 2 of his last 3 starts.

Darvish (6-3, 3.35 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 0.97 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 75 1/3 IP.

Faced the Diamondbacks in his first start of the season April 7 with 6 hitless innings and walked 4 in a 4-2 loss.
Has allowed only 1 run in his last 15 innings spanning 2 starts.

Diamondbacks at Padres odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:40 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Diamondbacks +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Padres -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-155) | Padres -1.5 (+125)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

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Diamondbacks at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 4, Diamondbacks 2

Money line

The Diamondbacks have won 3 of their last 4 games but are 6-9 in their last 15 contests. The magic number for them has been 5 runs. They are 13-2 in their last 15 games scoring 5 or more. They have lost 13 games in a row when they fail to score at least 5 runs.

The Padres have allowed 5 or more runs in 5 of their last 6 games but have allowed 4 or fewer runs in 9 of Darvish’s 12 starts this season.

I expect the Padres to win but it’s a PASS on the money line unless you include it as part of a parlay bet because of the price. As a single bet, it isn’t worth the action.

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Run line/Against the spread

The Diamondbacks are 39-29 ATS on the season, which is the third-best mark in baseball, and they are 20-12 ATS on the road. However, their last 5 road losses have been by 2 or more runs.

Of the Padres’ last 12 wins, 11 have been by at least 2 runs. But they are 10-20 ATS at home this season.

That said, I expect the Diamondbacks to struggle offensively against Darvish.

Take the PADRES -1.5 (+125).

Over/Under

Opponents have scored fewer than 5 runs in 3 of Davies’ last 4 starts but the Diamondbacks’ last 7 games have all had 8 or more total runs.

The Padres have had 6 straight games of 8 or more runs.

However, 3 of the 4 games between the two teams in April had 7 or fewer runs.

Take UNDER 7.5 (-130).

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Author: Naomi Berry