The Dallas Mavericks (34-24) visit the Big Easy Thursday to play the New Orleans Pelicans (23-35). Tip-off at Smoothie King Center is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Pelicans odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Dallas upset the Heat 107-99 Tuesday in Miami as a 5.5-point underdog. The Mavs are 5-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) since Feb. 4.
NOLA lost its third in the last four games Tuesday, falling 121-109 at home to the Memphis Grizzlies as a 3.5-point underdog. But the Pelicans are 4-3 SU and ATS since Feb. 4.
These teams split a back-to-back, home-and-away Dec. 1-3 with the road team winning and covering both games. The Over/Under (O/U) was 1-1.
Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NBA February 17 breakdown
Mavericks at Pelicans odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:14 p.m. ET.
Money line: Mavericks -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Pelicans +122 (bet $100 to win $122)
Against the spread: Mavericks -2.5 (-120) | Pelicans +2.5 (-105)
Over/Under: 215.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Mavericks at Pelicans key injuries
SF Reggie Bullock (hip) questionable
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Mavericks at Pelicans odds, lines, picks and predictions
Pelicans 107, Mavericks 104
LEAN to the PELICANS (+122) since we are getting to the party a little late and their spread is the sharper play.
The Pelicans have quietly been playing good basketball recently and their trade deadline acquisition of SG C.J. McCollum has given them really good minutes.
NOLA is scoring 13.3 more points per 100 possessions when McCollum is on the floor. McCollum has averaged 26.0 points on 50.6% shooting with 7.0 rebounds and 5.5 assists in four games since joining the Pelicans.
Also, SF Brandon Ingram has balled out versus Dallas since joining New Orleans. Ingram is scoring 24.0 points on 60.1% true shooting (.501/.353/.873) with a plus-4.3 box plus/minus (BPM). Ingram’s BPM this season is plus-1.4.
However, it’s only a “lean” to the PELICANS (+122) because I prefer them getting points and they were +135 underdogs on the look-ahead line, according to Pregame.com.
Against the spread
BET PELICANS +2.5 (-105) heavier than or instead of their money line because there’s been a sharp line move in their direction. Dallas opened as a 3.5-point favorite but have been lowered by presumably sharp money.
There’s value in the Pelicans at this number because they are 10-7 ATS at home versus teams with a winning record and the Mavs are terrible in close games.
The oddsmakers are projecting this to be decided within a couple of possessions and Dallas has the worst net rating in “clutch” situations (minus-28.9). “Clutch” is defined as games within a 5-point margin inside of five minutes to play.
For the record, NEW ORLEANS +2.5 (-105) is my favorite wager in this game.
LEAN to the UNDER 215.5 (-115) for a one-third unit.
Both teams play at a bottom-10 pace and both are good rebounding teams, so there should be a lot of “one-and-done” possessions. Also, Dallas is 10-21-2 O/U as favorites and New Orleans is 16-28 O/U as underdogs.
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