Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings odds, picks and predictions

The Golden State Warriors (49-29) visit the Golden 1 Center Sunday to take on the Sacramento Kings (29-49). Tip-off is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Kings odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

The Warriors, who are trying to keep their place in the Western Conference, are coming off Saturday’s thrilling victory over the Jazz, covering as 2-point home underdogs. They won 111-107 despite being down 16 in the fourth quarter.

Golden State has been led by G Jordan Poole, who has recorded 2 straight 30-point games and averaged 25.4 points per game in March. The Warriors are just 3-6 against the spread (ATS) in the last 9 games and are 38-36-4 ATS on the season.

The Kings, clearly out of play-in tournament contention, are 38-39-1 ATS on the season and will be without their two leading scorers.

They sit 12th in the West and are 3.5 games behind the Spurs for the 10th spot. Sacramento is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games though. It allows the second-most points per game in the league (115.8), its main Achilles heel.

Warriors at Kings odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:46 p.m. ET.

Money line: Warriors -230 (bet $230 to win $100) | Kings +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
Against the spread (ATS): Warriors -5.5 (-110) | Kings +5.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 221.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

Warriors at Kings key injuries

Warriors (not yet submitted)

G Stephen Curry (foot) out

Kings

G De’Aaron Fox (hand) out
C Domantas Sabonis (knee) out

Warriors at Kings odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 114, Kings 111

Money line

PASS.

While I like the Warriors to win, their -230 money line is far too steep. The Kings, having won 4 of their last 5, have some value at +180, but I’d pass and look toward the points for value.

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Against the spread

BET the KINGS +5.5 (-110).

The Kings are 5-1 ATS over their last 6. While they’ve lost all 3 this season to Golden State by double figures, the Warriors are a different beast with two-time MVP G Stephen Curry in the lineup.

The Warriiors are just 2-6 straight up and 3-5 ATS following Curry’s injury. While Poole has stepped up, he’ll get defensive-minded rookie G Davion Mitchell.

Also, F Harrison Barnes has stepped up for the Kings, and he’s absolutely shredded Golden State this season. He’s scored 25, 24 and 19 in the 3 matchups, shooting over 50% from the field in each.

The Warriors beat the Jazz and lost to the Phoenix Suns by 4, both at home. They’re just 8-11-2 ATS as road favorites, so covering in this situation isn’t something they do often.

Lastly, we’re seeing some reverse-line movement for the Kings as the Warriors are getting 61% of the cash and 78% of the tickets per pregame.com yet the spread has dropped from the open -6.5.

Combine it all, and I’ll take the Kings to keep things at least close.

Over/Under

PASS with a slight lean to the OVER 221.5 (-108).

The Warriors are 3-3 O/U over their last 6, but the Kings, who like to push the pace, are 7-1 O/U in their last 8.

The Dubs defense, which they prided themselves on throughout much of the season, hasn’t been quite as dominant as of late. Their defensive rating is the 17th-best in March.

I like the Over, but the Kings spread is my best bet in this game.

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Author: Naomi Berry