In a light heavyweight fight in the main event, Jamahal Hill and Johnny Walker meet Saturday at UFC Vegas 48 — also known as UFC Fight Night 201 — at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. Below, we analyze the UFC Vegas 48: Walker vs. Hill odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the prelims starting at 4 p.m. ET and the main card at 7 p.m.
Hill takes the walk to the octagon for the sixth time at the UFC level. He is coming off a 48-second Round 1 knockout of Jimmy Crute last time out on the Font-Aldo card Dec. 4. Each of his last four fights has ended in Round 2 or earlier, with two wins via KO/TKO and one loss by way of knockout across the past three.
The southpaw Hill has managed 7.45 significant strikes landed per minute, although Walker is much more pinpoint with a 66.16 to 52.17 edge in significant strikes accuracy percentage.
Walker has dropped three of his last four fights, including a unanimous-decision loss to Thiago Santos last time out in the main event Oct. 2. His only victory since March 2019 is a KO/TKO in Round 1 against Ryan Spann in Sept. 2020.
Walker holds a three-inch reach advantage and is two inches taller than his counterpart.
UFC Vegas 48 Hill vs. Walker: Odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:37 a.m. ET.
Fight result (2-way line): Hill -240 (bet $240 to win $100) | Walker +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +290 | No -475)
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UFC Vegas 48 Hill vs. Walker: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Hill (9-1-0) | Walker (18-6-0)
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
The southpaw Hill (-240), a.k.a. “Sweet Dreams”, heads into this fight with a three-inch reach disadvantage. He’ll have to be careful not to get too close early on, letting Walker punch himself out trying to get close to the favorite.
Look for this one to take a little time before the favorite goes in for the kill. Hill doesn’t usually like to go long, and he certainly doesn’t care to leave it in the judges’ hands, nor go to the mat for wins. The best bet is taking HILL BY TKO/KO (-145).
Taking No (-475): Fight to go the distance costs more than four and a half times your potential return, and that is just too much risk for not enough reward.
Instead, the better use of your betting buck is to play a two-round block to win. HILL IN ROUND 2 (+470) and HILL IN ROUND 3 (+850) is a solid play. Yes, you’ll lose one of the ends, even if he wins in Rounds 2-3, but you’ll still be quite far ahead.
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