San Antonio Spurs at Charlotte Hornets odds, picks and predictions

The San Antonio Spurs (24-39) head to the Spectrum Center Saturday to play the Charlotte Hornets (31-33) at 7 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Spurs vs. Hornets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

San Antonio lost its third consecutive game Thursday to the Sacramento Kings, 115-112, at home as 6.5-point favorites. Since the All-Star break, the Spurs are 1-3 straight up (SU) and 2-2 against the spread (ATS).

Charlotte is 2-2 SU and ATS following the All-Star Game, most recently beating the Cavaliers, 119-98, Wednesday in Cleveland as 4-point road underdogs.

The Hornets blasted the Spurs, 131-115, in San Antonio, Dec. 15, as 2-point road underdogs, and the Over easily cashed on the 224-point total.

Spurs at Hornets odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:45 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Spurs +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Hornets -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
Against the spread: Spurs +3.5 (-105) | Hornets -3.5 (-120)
Over/Under (O/U): 236.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Spurs at Hornets key injuries

Spurs

Hornets

SF Gordon Hayward (ankle) out

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Spurs at Hornets odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Hornets 114, Spurs 111

Money line

PASS.

Since I only “lean” to San Antonio’s spread, I’m not going to sprinkle on the Spurs (+140).

Furthermore, San Antonio has a knack for losing tight games and has the second-worst win differential based on adjusted net rating at minus-6.2, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Essentially the Spurs have six fewer wins than they should, and a big reason for that is San Antonio’s third-worst “clutch” time net rating. “Clutch” is defined by games within a 5-point margin inside of five minutes to play.

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Against the spread

“LEAN” to the SPURS +3.5 (-105) for a half-unit, at most, since a vast majority of the market is betting the Hornets -3.5 (-120), according to VegasInsider.com, and it’s a slightly better spot for San Antonio.

For instance, the Spurs are 15-11 ATS as road underdogs (plus-4.3 ATS margin), 10-6-1 ATS on the road versus teams with a losing record and 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games versus losing teams. While the Hornets are 6-7 ATS as home favorites and 5-7 ATS at home versus losing teams.

But, since most of the action is on Charlotte and San Antonio has a couple of contributors listed as “questionable” on its injury report, I’d wait closer to tip-off before placing a LITE WAGER on the SPURS +3.5 (-105).

Over/Under

The UNDER 236.5 (-110) is my favorite play in the Spurs-Hornets game because there are several Under-friendly trends, the Under has been hit by a sharp line move, and both teams are in the bottom-four of offensive FT/FGA rate.

This total opened at 241.5 and has been steamed all the way down to the current number. This has to be sharp money since I doubt a lot of casual NBA bettors are betting the Under in a Spurs-Hornets game.

Also, the Spurs are 9-16-1 O/U as road underdogs and 7-10 O/U with a rest disadvantage. Whereas the Hornets are 7-9-1 O/U as home favorites, 5-7 ATS when playing with a rest advantage and 1-4 O/U in their last five games.

However, I hesitate to put a full unit on the UNDER 236.5 (-110) since we are getting the worst of the number.

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Author: Naomi Berry