San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

The San Francisco Giants (37-29) meet the Atlanta Braves (39-29) Tuesday for the 2nd of their 4-game series at Truist Park with the first pitch scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Giants vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Atlanta won the series opener 2-1 Monday with a walk-off RBI single by Braves IF Orlando Arcia in the bottom of the 9th. Tuesday’s meeting was their 1st of the year.

Giants at Braves projected starters

RHP Anthony DeSclafani vs. RHP Spencer Strider  

DeSclafani (0-1, 6.38 ERA) is making his 4th start of the season for San Francisco. He’s been on the IL since late April with right ankle inflammation.

Last start: Lost 6-2 April 21 at the New York Mets with 5 IP, 5 ER, 9 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 4 K.
2021 vs. the Braves: 0-2 with a 5.00 ERA (9 IP, 5 ER), 12 H, 3 HR, 0 BB and 10 K in 2 starts.

Strider is 3-2 with a 2.45 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 13.9 K/9 in 44 IP over 4 starts and 11 relief appearances in his first full year in the MLB.

Last start: Won 8-2 Wednesday at the Washington Nationals with 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 1 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 11 K.
This is Strider’s 1st start vs. the Giants.

Giants at Braves odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:05 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Giants +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Braves -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Giants +1.5 (-140) | Braves -1.5 (+115)
Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +110 | U: -135)

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Giants at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 6, Giants 4

Money line

RISK 1 unit on the BRAVES (-175) instead of betting to 1 unit because of their price. But, Atlanta has a decisive edge in the pitching department and has seen significant sharp line movement.

Strider has been fantastic so far in The Show and has nasty stuff. He grades in the 88th percentile or better in expected ERA, expected batting average, wOBA and slugging percentage, whiff rate and K%, per Statcast. Also, Atlanta’s bullpen is 3rd in ERA, 4th in WHIP and 1st in FIP, per FanGraphs.

Finally, close to 90% of the money is on the Braves and their ML has been increased from a -151 opener due to a flood of sharp money (according to Pregame.com). The total bets made a nearly split between the 2 sides but the sharper bettors are staking Atlanta.

If your standard unit is $100 then “flat-BET” that on the BRAVES (-175) to earn a $57.14 profit instead of betting $175 to win $100.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

Strider’s lone issue in the big leagues has been his command and San Francisco’s lineup doesn’t chase pitches outside of the zone and has a high BB% vs. right-handed pitching. In fact, the Giants hit right-handed pitching much better than the Braves making Atlanta’s RL a no-go Tuesday.

Over/Under

LEAN to the OVER 9.5 (+110) only because the Over 9.5 (-135) appears to be the sharper side and Atlanta’s ML is my favorite wager in this game.

However, the Braves are 19-11-2 O/U as home favorites, Truist Park is a hitter-friendly venue (7th in park factor) and the weather conditions are hitter-friendly with forecasts of temperatures in the low-90s and a light breeze out to center field.

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Author: Naomi Berry